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Main learnings: don't invest in too complex businesses (which $APPS is due to acquisitions), normalize inflated earnings for financial models, be cautious with multiple acquisition if the business model isn't set up for it, macro isn't an excuse for ongoing underperformance.
ST may be in pilot projects and they keep paying down debt but those already were the highlights in the last quarters. Feel like they got too much going on in the company. Kinda reminds me of BICO and their acquisitions they couldn't handle as the environment got rougher.
Sold $APPS. Feels like execution is missing on all fronts. You can't only blame macro since multiple quarters while other addtech players report flat top line. The product market fit doesn't seem to be as great as Bill always says. SBC increasing to 7% of revenue.
Saesch
to wrap this up
„The TAM is enormous. The strategy is winning. So for us, it's just still let's go execute and get after it.“
- Bill Stone. CEO.
@Invesquotes So that's the way I think about insider ownership too. Bonus point if insiders own a lot but understandable if they don't imo. Maybe except for the founders.
@Invesquotes Ye probably rare. Wouldn't expect it from management to do it anyways cause if I'd get sbc as employee in a large comp I would sell as fast as I can due to 'concentration risk'. If the company fails it would impact my life anyways, don't need to transfer the risk to my wealth.
Leandro
Is it realistic to expect the CEO of a company with very little SBC to build a 5-10% stake just by purchasing stock in the open market?
Tough to see in multi-billion market cap companies where the founder is not at the helm
Will be interesting to see how the european real estate market evolves in the medium term, especially in the private sector. Could also weaken $NEM.DE tailwinds a bit.
mavix
Steico $ST5 Q1 '23 results:
▫️Revenue -16.7%
▫️EBITDA -45.5%
▫️EBIT -65.9%
▫️EBIT-Margin of 6% (vs. 14.9%)
▫️Profit -82.4%
▫️Outlook '23: Revenue at previous year level & EBIT-Margin of 10%-15%
▫️Management expects significantly increased demand in 2nd half of the year
SDI Group FY23 Trading Update is out. $SDI $SDI.L
➡️39% Revenue increase (4 acquisitions)
➡️Flat Adjusted Profit Before Tax (margin compression) which was to be expected.
➡️We should expect a 12% revenue decline in FY24 due to ending sales of PCR cameras (8.5m). Which might be…
So I would go with something like 10% Sdi, 90% Cash and take my personal summer investing school and probably use Sdi as a case study to apply things I learn. While looking for other ideas as I build up a framework and learn. Any thoughts?
If I would rebuild now, I probably wouldn’t buy $APPS or $PUBM, $FC as it‘s a 100% borrowed idea, $SUS and $NEM.DE sitting on high valuations. Probably only one I would keep here would be $SDI.L.
Just a thought:
Thinking about selling most of my stocks, no not cause I think of a crash, but thinking about a portfolio rebuild. As I said in my 22 recap: I want to find a more detailed framework/strategy. So would spend some time with reading and rebuilding.
1/x
Are you familiar with $NEM.DE? The company was founded by Georg Nemetschek as early as 1963, long before most people knew what the word "software" even meant. A true visionary.
Nemetschek's software suite caters to the needs of architects, engineers, and construction workers…
$NEM.DE Q1
▪ Guidance for 2023 confirmed
▪ Ambition for 2024 and 2025 confirmed
▪ Transition to subscriptions and SaaS continues to progress as planned
▪ Announced price increases in design
▪ Bluebeam: most new customers opting for SaaS with more extensive cloud features
@MoS_Investing Simply by underperformance vs the index I would use for indexing over 5-10yrs. Question is when to start comparing. I feel like you need some years to find your favourite approach in stock picking where it's hard to compare cause ur strategy is constantly in change.
Simon Handrahan | MOS Capital
At what point would you be willing to admit you are a poor stock picker and index?
Is it time based, relative performance, mental anguish, or simply not going to happen?
Deep Dive #6 - "Sleep Country ( $ZZZ.TO ) - Resilient Retailer Vs Uncertain Times" - now published. A comprehensive 35-page report that delves into the retail and e-commerce segments, analyzes the potential impact of a recession on SC, examines the industry structure, financial…
Deep dive (#5) on SDI Group plc $SDI.L, now published! This 39-page report offers an in-depth analysis of SDI's niche manufacturing businesses, acquisition history, financial performance, management, and valuation. Click the link below to read more.
Special thanks also to all the other great writer that are recommending Under-Followed-Stocks.
Subscribe to their substacks & follow them on Twitter:
@SebKrog @hurdle_rate @Stock_Opine @Carlos_MoraM @Invesquotes @IrrationalMrkts @stonkmetal @SaaSletter @SaeschInv…
That kicked off some interesting discussions in the comments. Check it out.
I feel like it‘s as always: It depends.
Lionheart Investing
I'm genuinely curious who here can actually correlate outperformance to deep dives on a company. For me, personally, anything beyond 30-60 minutes of work on an individual name has actually led to worse performance. What has your experience been on this subject?