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Markets & Mayhem

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This discount is good for your entire first year with MacroVisor, whether you choose a monthly or yearly plan! 🥳

Ayesha Tariq, CFA
The Fed may be pausing, but MacroVisor is not! Get 30% off your full first year - whether you get a monthly or yearly subscription! Click the link below to get the discount!
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June 14, 2023, 2:46 p.m.

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The problematic regulatory environment for food delivery companies just became moreso in NYC. This is potentially the start of a slippery slope in this industry. But rest assured, the increased costs will simply be passed on to their consumers.

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Markets & Mayhem
Signs have been present that $dash, $grub, $uber and others were in trouble based on an increasingly problematic regulatory environment, and macro headwinds (rising labor, fuel, food, and other costs). We're seeing shares catch down to reality as a result.

June 14, 2023, 3:01 a.m.

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Traderade
Have you considered covered call options strategies? But maybe you got stuck with where to sell or otherwise trying to navigate the strategy? We cover all of this and more! Check it out and get 25% off with the code FEDNESDAY until this week ends!

June 13, 2023, 6:53 p.m.

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There's no AI bubble 🤷‍♂️

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June 13, 2023, 6:44 p.m.

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Ugh. As if we needed any more of this. Philadelphia I-95 collapse to lift prices of goods in the east coast according to the Department of Transportation - Bloomberg

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June 13, 2023, 6:27 p.m.

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Ugh. As if we needed any more of this. Philadelphia I-95 collapse to lift prices of goods in the east coast according to the Department of Transportation - Bloomberg

June 13, 2023, 6:27 p.m.

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Soft and hard landings by the Fed according to @AEAjournals

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June 13, 2023, 4:55 p.m.

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Mission accomplished ... ? 🤷‍♂️

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June 13, 2023, 4:49 p.m.

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Pod Caste
🚨🚨 Breaking 🚨🚨 : #JPow Jerome Powell speaks to the market before June #FOMC #humor #poetry 🔥🔥
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June 13, 2023, 4:39 p.m.

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Our take on today's US CPI data

June 13, 2023, 3:53 p.m.

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The Fed has about as much credibility as our Congress: 0%

June 13, 2023, 2:43 p.m.

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Market is pricing in less than a 7% chance of a hike tomorrow, per CME.

June 13, 2023, 2:36 p.m.

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The durability of core inflation within US CPI remains a concern for the Fed! If we annualize 0.4%, we're at 4.8%. Well above any reasonable target for where the Fed wants to see this more sticky inflation. Higher for longer remains the mantra, but a skip tomorrow is likely.

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Markets & Mayhem
The durability of core inflation is certainly a concern for policymakers, particularly because the largest year-over-year relief came from energy. A trend that may not last given energy's resilience and upward price momentum in April. WTIC was bid up about $1 on US CPI data, too.
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June 13, 2023, 2:18 p.m.

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Plenty of opportunities on the short end of the curve to produce income, as we've been saying at MacroVisor

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June 13, 2023, 2:16 p.m.

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Eggcellent deflation

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June 13, 2023, 2:07 p.m.

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How we solve food scarcity in 2023 h/t @MPelletierCIO Source: Farm Journal

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June 13, 2023, 1:51 p.m.

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"We expect a wafer-thin +0.01% MoM advance for headline CPI (vs. +0.37% previously) and a +0.37% increase for core (vs. +0.41%). This would lead the former to drop by about a full point to 4% YoY, with the latter down -0.2% to 5.3%." — Deutsche Bank

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June 13, 2023, 10:25 a.m.

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Goldman Sachs US CPI scenarios Core MoM < 0.3% = S&P 500 up 2% Core MoM 0.3%-0.35% = S&P 500 up 1% Core MoM 0.35%-0.45% = S&P up or down 0.5% Core MoM 0.5 to 0.55% = S&P 500 down 1.5% Core MoM > 0.55% = S&P down 2.5% (Goldman expects core to come in at 0.44%)

June 13, 2023, 8:41 a.m.

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US Core CPI median estimate is 0.4% m/m

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June 13, 2023, 8:38 a.m.

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The revenge spend travel trend is not a friend to one's wallet as hotel prices hit an all-time high in May

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June 13, 2023, 8:37 a.m.

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Goldman Sachs expects a 0.44% increase in Core CPI

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June 13, 2023, 8:36 a.m.

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US CPI median estimate is 0.4% m/m

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June 13, 2023, 8:35 a.m.

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JPM saw similar coming into this issuance

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June 13, 2023, 5:19 a.m.

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Initial signs are that funds are indeed coming out of bank reserves and not RRP. Therefore the impact is likely to be felt by a drop in overall liquidity. Issuance started last week. So far RRP held relatively steady. So TGA up, RRP flat and more issuance = lower liquidity.

Markets & Mayhem
The Treasury may issue up to $700B in T-bills just weeks after any debt ceiling resolution, pulling liquidity out of the market. While the lack of issuance was helpful to offset the impacts of QT, such a sizable issuance is like an amplifier for tightening financial conditions.

June 13, 2023, 5:18 a.m.

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JPMorgan settles with Epstein victims—and will reportedly pay $290 million — Forbes

June 13, 2023, 5:07 a.m.

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