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IvanaSPEAR

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91% of all cyber attacks start with a phishing e-mail, according to Deloitte. $NET e-mail security biz is under-appreciated and a segue into the rest of @Cloudflare cyber products…

Matthew Prince 🌥
Totally happy with your email security? What if I told you there’s significantly better tech from @Cloudflare for a lot less money. Easy win with virtually $0 in IT implementation costs. Don’t take my word for it…
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June 12, 2023, 10:40 p.m.

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Replying to @Jamin Ball

@jaminball Not a good day for this report

Jamin Ball
Hashicorp quarter: - $138M rev (+37% YoY) vs $133M consensus (4% beat) - $138M next Q guidance vs $142M consensus (3% miss) - Reduced full year guide by 4% (relative to guidance on last earnings call) - 127% NDR - $6m net new ARR ($95m S&M last Q) - 81% GM - 1% FCF Margin $HCP

June 8, 2023, 1:07 a.m.

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Link to our primer which is now a bit dated. Stay tuned for an update:

June 5, 2023, 5:32 p.m.

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Generally when you grow a new businesses it becomes margin dilutive. Not for $PANW. 2Q GMs were up 320bps YoY to 76.1%. Mgmt now expects FY23 OM to be ~23.1% vs. 21.7% previously.

June 5, 2023, 5:32 p.m.

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How is this possible? Key is distribution. The company has a large installed base of 61,000+ network security customers that can tap into to upsell on "next gen" solutions.

June 5, 2023, 5:32 p.m.

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The story is pretty simple...$PANW how has over $2.57B in "next gen" ARR growing 60%+. This "next gen" business is now bigger than $ZS, and on par with $CRWD (ARR of $2.73B), growing faster!

June 5, 2023, 5:32 p.m.

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We highlighted $PANW in our Cybersecurity Primer as a top pick in 2021. But the company execution has far exceeded our expectations.

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June 5, 2023, 5:32 p.m.

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$PANW has been the best-risk reward in our coverage universe. Outperformed $NVDA since 2021! 😲

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June 5, 2023, 5:32 p.m.

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More on the set up for cloud in 2H below👇 Thank you @nasdaq for highlighting my article:

June 5, 2023, 2:48 p.m.

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Here is an article I wrote about it few weeks ago: @Nasdaq

June 5, 2023, 2:40 p.m.

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Last week was the first time we noticed flows away from semis and into cloud... $SNOW $NET $DDOG $CFLT vs. $NVDA $AMD $MRVL

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June 5, 2023, 2:35 p.m.

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Retweeted post by @IvanaSPEAR
IvanaSPEAR
Cyber Sale Day 2 today in Endpoint post $S results: Investors didn't like that even after adjusting for the "reporting inaccuracies" the company still missed. My notes from the call below 👇
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June 5, 2023, 12:58 p.m.

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Replying to @Jamin Ball

@jaminball Very interesting how many companies now trading >10x NTM revenues are expected to grow <20% NTM Not sure how that math works. These NTM numbers better be conservative or there will be some damage…

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Jamin Ball
One month later - There's now almost 20 companies trading >10x NTM rev, with the highest close to 20x

June 2, 2023, 6:44 p.m.

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Speaking to the company tonight - will report back if there is anything incremental.

June 2, 2023, 5:14 p.m.

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Cyber Sale Day 2 today in Endpoint post $S results: Investors didn't like that even after adjusting for the "reporting inaccuracies" the company still missed. My notes from the call below 👇

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June 2, 2023, 5:11 p.m.

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Retweeted post by @IvanaSPEAR
IvanaSPEAR
Cyber sale today driven by $OKTA results. Pick your favorite cyber stocks! $OKTA keeps throwing "macro" under the bus, but there is more than weak macro in these results. Key customer metrics going the wrong way. Below are my notes from the call👇
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June 2, 2023, 4 a.m.

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Replying to @Francis

@InvestiAnalyst @BluSuitDillon The call was pretty bad … they couldn’t explain how to bridge to the guide down. But if u step back they have a good product and decent growth… maybe game over for them being an independent company

Francis
@BluSuitDillon I reserve the right to change my mind after listening to the call to understand why they lowered their guide.

June 2, 2023, 1:29 a.m.

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Cyber sale today driven by $OKTA results. Pick your favorite cyber stocks! $OKTA keeps throwing "macro" under the bus, but there is more than weak macro in these results. Key customer metrics going the wrong way. Below are my notes from the call👇

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June 1, 2023, 3:51 p.m.

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$CRWD run a bit too much into earnings post $PANW result & $ZS pre-announce. Lack of upside revision driving move lower. Notes from the call 👇

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June 1, 2023, 5:12 a.m.

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Replying to @Jamin Ball

@jaminball $OKTA my sense is that they got a boost from OpenAI last Q masking underlying problems …macro is def tough, but something still off here

Jamin Ball
Question on Okta Q&A: Q: "...did the macro actually get worse from last quarter or did it stay the same?" A: "Yes. Yes, it definitely got worse." Timing of re-acceleration in software getting murkier. '23 numbers feel de-risked, but '24 numbers in question

June 1, 2023, 2:42 a.m.

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I’ll be on @BNNBloomberg tomorrow talking about $AI vs. $NVDA

IvanaSPEAR
$AI Lots of red flags in the accounting disclosures …few companies change the way they count costumers…(see 🧵👇)
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May 31, 2023, 10:07 p.m.

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Retweeted post by @IvanaSPEAR
IvanaSPEAR
$NVDA ...not even firing on all cylinders. Data Center capex cycle is just about to turn. Notes from the call 👇 Full thesis:
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May 31, 2023, 3:30 a.m.

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You don’t have to chase hyped-up stocks to benefit from Artificial Intelligence (AI): My favorite quote this earnings season was from @PaloAltoNtwks CEO, @nikesharora “AI is a data problem and cybersecurity is a data problem”. Tune into BNN Bloomberg for our thoughts 👇…

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May 30, 2023, 6:38 p.m.

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$NVDA ...not even firing on all cylinders. Data Center capex cycle is just about to turn. Notes from the call 👇 Full thesis:

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May 30, 2023, 3:22 p.m.

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Replying to @The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter Spot on, but this was not overnight. Here is the background and thesis:

The Kobeissi Letter
Just a few years ago, Nvidia, $NVDA, was known as a graphics card producer for gamers. Now, Nvidia is known as a leader in AI-related technology. Just about every statement Nvidia makes is related to AI in some way. This is a textbook example of adapting to the current market…

May 29, 2023, 11:48 p.m.

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